X-ing Card Values with Zimone, Infinite Analyst

The Secrets of Strixhaven precon commanders have dropped and so we've applied our data science algorithms to try to identify which existing cards have a high likelhood of going up in value. As always, the algorithms don't know what will be reprinted, so this comes with oodles of caveats that a reprinted card is unlikely to spike in price.

We also hit 100% success (and a 3-10x on every card prediction from the point of prediction to the release of this article) for Blight Curse, but I left off a few cards that the algorithms flagged, so here I've gone longer, which probably reduces the success rate, so consider this the long-list?

 First, lets take a look at Zimone, Infinite Analyst.

And alongside Zimone as a precon there's some indication that we might get a few other X spell shenanigans in Secrets of Strixhaven:

which for X=6 (i.e. 14 mana total) probably decks someone, then either copy it or Eternal Witness it back and go again.

My first thought is that when you consider the existing ‘X-spell’ commanders that are popular (both Magus Lucea Kane and Zaxara the Exemplary are in the top 150 commanders on EDHrec) they are all perhaps just more powerful than Zimone and they offer a 3^rd colour from which to choose your X-spells:

So I wonder to what extent Zimone and Mathemagics and whatever other X-spell shenanigans come in the precons/set get converted into those commanders decks over the longer term. And whether players try X-ing with Zimone for the first time and then switch to Lucea (copying mathemagics to deck 2 players at once seems fun) or Zaxara (filling the board with HUGE hydras) so my opening assumption is that we don’t have to apply a colour filter to results and we can instead consider Temur or Sultai X-builds that will get a boost off the precon.

That brings us neatly to our first prediction:

1. Alternate Commanders:

   Magus Lucea Kane: is a tyranid, so she’s tough to reprint until the next 40k colab (not on the cards for this year). There's currently a grand total of 18 copies of Lucea on TCGplayer and many of those are played copies. In Europe, there are a few hundred copies on cardmarket meaning a few more players could make the switch to the Lucea archetype and the temur X spells might see more uptake over here. Plausibly, Secrets of Strix will sell through those final few hundred Lucea copies.

2. Unbound Flourishing:

   It’s really hard to not see Unbound Flourishing getting a reprinting, but if it doesn’t… It’s a firm staple of all other X decks and with just the single proper printing there’s not a lot of supply (less than 10 copies on TCGplayer, a few hundred on CM). But (complete guess) I’d wager on a reprinting for this...

3. Nexos

   appears to have hit its tipping point with a few 10s of copies left on TCGplayer and down to ~100 copies on cardmarket. Again, hard to reprint because it says 'tyranid' in the creature type. It's better in a straight Simic build than the other two because you can probably pretty much skip non-basic lands between all the green ramp you’ll want for the X spells and just needing 2 colours. Although, you may still want a Reliquary Tower – for those times you mathemagic yourself. Easy to imagine this at least 3x-ing in the coming months.

4. Ramaging Yao Guai

   I like this algorithm output a lot. Its got the Universes Beyond aspects of the 40k stuff, but seems overlooked so far. It's actually trending down in price while supply is rapidly vanishing for it. On CM its at the €1 mark and its going to clear out every artifact and enchantment on the board that isn't your own.

5. 40k X-ers:

   Sporocyst, Tyrant Guard, Aberrant: These cards have been a home run since the rumours that WOTC and Games Workshop weren't quite seeing eye-to-eye on the rights. Sporocyst (less than 20 copies left) ramps for the X-spells and Tyrant Guard (also less than 20 copies) protects Zimone and Aberrant (less than 30 copies) is just solid repeated artifact/enchantment removal. The buyout of these seems to have happened in the US, but cardmarket still has a few hundred copies of each left.

If Zimone ends up just going into Lucea's deck then folks will also want Zoanthrope, Exocrine and Mawloc . These haven't yet had their full US buyout e.g. Zoanthrope (the most included card in Lucea builds) has a little over 50 copies and is still $1. For some reason, Exocrine can still be had for ~$1 but has very few copies left. Mawloc has a few copies left below $5.

6. Pumping and Protecting Zimone:

Ride the Avalanche: This card is so good for Zimone that I'll be shocked if its not in the precon. Finance-wise, its not really had a home before so there's probably too much supply of it but it does only have one printing? At $/€0.25 per copy the risk's pretty low...

Similarly, the algorithm flags Ruinous Intrusion which has 2 precon printings and is below $/€0.25 per copy. It rapidly fills Zimone with +1/+1s ready for X spells. But maybe its primed for a reprint for that reason too.

Silkguard: though is likely the most solid of these effects, with only one proper printing (a Kamigawa precon) and then the marvel bonus sheet, but maybe its so perfect that it'll get a reprint? If not, the marvel bonus sheet copies are pretty cheap for a card with less than ten copies ($5), similarly in Europe its a €3 card with a few hundred copies left.

Maybe the best option more generally is Mutational Advantage with ~200 copies in Europe and less than 30 on TCG player, it already has low supply because its excellent in so many decks.

7. X-spells:

Animists Awakening: synergises perfectly with all 3 commanders and is at a fairly reasonable price point in the US and Europe ($1 or €1 respectively), but again really easy to imagine it getting reprinted with Zimone? Similarly, Open the Way only has the one printing (well lots of fancy copies thanks to the masterpiece that was Aftermath).

One that won't be in the simic precon is Storm Kings Thunder: that isn't getting a reprint in the simic deck for sure. At the moment it just has the Baldurs Gate printing.

Maybe most appropriate (since its from Strix 1.0) is Crackle of Power, but it already commands quite a premium and there's many more copies of it than the 40k bits for, in many cases, 10x the price. You could imagine this being a mystical archive too?

8. Hydras

   Zaxara the Exemplary loves to fill the board with all those GX hydras. But its hard to see Zimone having quite so many hydras in the precon, although I'll eat my hat if Hydroid Krasis isn't reprinted in it. There are a few hydras that have less printings and might fit with Zimone or are 'essential' for Lucea or Zaxara, so if they don't get reprinted they could be worth considering for a cheeky spec:

   
   

   Benevolent Hydra: is perhaps the most synergistic hydra for Zimone, giving her extra +1/+1s several ways. It has one Jumpstart printing and a secret lair printing. It has a few hundred copies left on CM and a few 10s on TCGplayer. If this doesn't get a precon reprint...

Hungering Hydra: is the most common inclusion of the hydras, and again only has two printings.

Goldvein Hydra : one printing and only has a few 10s of copies left on TCGplayer it is widely used in all the existing X decks. Worst case, Zimone nets lots of free treasure with it for the next X spell.

Steelbane Hydra: again, one (and only commander precon) printing and only a few 10s of copies left. It removes all those pesky Sol rings...

Primordial Hydra : doubles in price with a couple sales and with the exception of Jumpstart hasn't had a reprint for a decade.

Voracious Hydra: with just the M20 printing has very few copies left on TCGplayer, but on cardmarket there are 1800 of them (although that does mean that you can grab them for about a euro where they're 5-7 times that in the US). Feels over-priced already?

Lifeblood Hydra: has an extra printing vs the others and perhaps that why it commands half the price of them, but it only has a few 10s of copies remaining. Plausibly a reprint though?

It's hard to imagine any Hydra doing much more than 3xing. Sure they're perfect for the deck, but there are plenty of alternative hydras to play so that likely sets a price ceiling on them too, and that's probably not a lot above where they are.

9. Some cheap Zimone redundancy?

Cryptic Trilobite: This offers some Zimone redundancy if she's died too many times. It can be loaded up with +1/+1s from Silkguard etc. to give giant X-spells and Zimone's cost reduction just leads to even larger mathemagics. It could be a fun punt at €0.25 on cardmarket, with a little over 1000 copies from a single printing. But it also seems a fairly viable reprint.

10. Elementalists Palette: Another staple of the X-spell decks is Elementalists Palette, with less than 20 copies left on TCGplayer, but an average of 2 sales/day over the last year, it might not have very long left in stock...

Honorable Mentions (cards that will fit perfectly with Zimone but are unlikely to price spike)

Forgotten Ancient: is clearly going to be Zimones best friend, but its been printed in so many commander precons that its hard to imagine it not getting another reprint here. There are so many copies of it and so many reprints.

Villainous Wealth: is an auto include in Zaxara, but there are so many printings of it, that it's hard to imagine it spiking in price.

Blue Sun's Zenith and Drown in Dreams: provide some redundancy for mathemagics. In Europe there are a few thousand copies of Drown in Dreams on CM, but much less on TCGplayer and at less than $1 a copy it might be worth considering?

Repulsive Mutation: is a nice way to start making all your X-spells extremely cheap with Zimone, but Murders is probably recent enough that people will trawl their bulk boxes if this did start to spike. Could be worth digging out any copies you do have lying around?

Concluding remarks

So where are we at the moment in terms of specs for Strix? For safety at the moment, we're on the 40k and Fallout cards and strongly considering Storm Kings Thunder.

Then our short list for checking vs reprinting is Unbound Flourishing and Silkguard, with a possibility of Ride the Avalanche. These are a necessity for Zimone and/or low risk vs high reward. We're less keen on the Hydras, but would opt for Benevolent if pushed because of the low printings. Generally, we feel that Hydras are more replaceable and maybe not the precise spell-based Zimone+Mathemagics shenanigans the deck is after.

More generally, we wonder whether a potential increased demand for the 40k X-ers here will push a wider 40k price increase (already being seen for Nurgles Rot).

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Jace & Garruk