Loreholding Value - Resurrecting some old Spirits of the Magic Card Market

A few hours ago we got the full lists of the Secrets of Strixhaven precons. So here's our analysis of which cards (reprints) are most likely to drop in price the most and which cards from outside the precon are likely to go up in price because of new demand from the Lorehold Spirit precon.

 First, lets take a look at Quintorius, History Chaser:

So, I think the deck will aim to fill the graveyard through all the efficient red draw-discard engines in the deck as well as bits like Highway Robbery and Scrapwork Mutt type spells, then can take 2 different directions for Boros:

1. it could be a reanimator deck (Antivenom, Celestine the Living Saint...) and already has Lorehold Archivist and Excava and Angel of Indeminty to support this

At the moment it looks kind of fun to loop Selfless Spirits and Skyclave Apparitions with Venerable Warsinger, but I wonder if a substantial number of players will instead:

2. lean into Quintorius's triggered ability to fill the board with Spirit tokens, by focussing on more of a flashback/mayhem/escape deck with lots of boros spells and Underworld Breach, Past in Flames and Festival of Embers. The new Advanced Reconstruction, seem like a nice route that players might take the deck, but it feels tough to do both these things?

For this article, we'll discuss cards that will decrease in price (reprints) then cards that our analysis suggests will increase in price (if the precon is popular). We're data scientists, so the analysis is built off evidence, models and trends from historic data. For the Lorwyn precons, our (now improved) algorithms that identify cards likely to go up in price provided a mean price increase of 420% between the articles release date and price checks 6 weeks later (see our articles on this for the evidence), but we don't think that we will be quite so successful here because with 5 precons (plus all the awesome new dragons) the demand will be less focussed than it was for a 2-precon+morcant+marlean set.

Ok, lets start with the 'sell recommendations' (those that will likely take a chunky price hit from being reprinted):

1. Wave of Reckoning a below average Wrath of God that was commanding a high price because it hadn't had a reprint in 10 years. It sees a fair bit of play as a one-sided Wrath in e.g. the Treefolk and Toughness matters decks (because Doran has no power), but we expect a substantial (~40%) drop from its $20 current price because for most decks there are better options.

2. Bitterthorn, Nissa's Animus:

Sword of the Animists slightly more expensive sibling gives a fixing and ramp tool for non-green decks but its inclusion rates aren't particularly high (<1%) and its largely used by equipment based decks. Its unlikely to maintain its $20 asking price with this new injection of supply. Its price really grew from $12 with the release of Cloud and the boost to equipment strategies with FF, but it will likely return to the $12 with this new printing. Plausibly those equipment themes might regain some steam with Captain America's return in June (albeit potentially not that version of Cap...), but that's a completely non-evidence-based assertion.

3. Currency Converter rocketed from $5 to $20 with the release of Aetherdrift, due to the short supply on its single Streets of New Capenna printing and has now settled at $12. This reprint sends it back towards $5. While its excellent for discard related decks, it doesn't have particularly high inclusion rates and those where it's a staple are not the most played commanders. What it does it does very well, but there isn't a mega popular commander yet that it fits with. Having said this, it might fit nicely with Doctor Doom King of Latveria, but presumably it will get a second reprint in his deck. If not, it might be worth holding off on selling. But given how universally hated Spidey was, I wouldn't bet too hard on Doom propping its price up even if it doesn't get a reprint in that precon.

4. Angel of Indemnity: Previously just had the single Outlaws printing, but at 6 mana and with homes in not particularly popular commanders this one likely goes from $4.5 to $2.

5. Serra Paragon: is a somewhat popular angel that already has a few printings and finds a home in the popular angel decks (e.g Giada ). This reprint will push its price down the standard 20-30%, but its homes are sufficiently popular that it shouldn't fully tank in price.

6. Staff of the Storyteller: a $/€4 card that finds a home in token decks, with this reprint heads back to $/€3.

   

   
   

7. Emeria the Sky Ruin: As lands for your mono-white decks go, you struggle to find better than ones with a free in-built reanimate. With the exception of an (even more expensive) secret lair version this hasn't been reprinted for a little over a decade. While its inclusion rates are excellent for mono-white decks, they aren't massively popular commanders (except Giada) so this likely takes the 30% hit, but to be honest our confidence levels on this result are not huge.

   

8. Moonshaker Cavalry: Currently commands a ~$/€10 valuation and is obviously a great reanimation target so if WOTC do keep pushing that then maybe this white Craterhoof Behemoth will hold its value but for the moment we expect a 20-30% price cut. Longer term, it does have solid inclusion rates on EDHRec so it could bounce back up a bit. If you can't sell it this week, then I wouldn't rush to fire sale it next month.

An initial sell thats a potential buy?

Monologue Tax: while its price will initially drop, the pattern from its previous reprints (e.g. Duskmourn) is that this is short-lived and it climbs back up because it is something of a staple and several of the top 200 commanders play it. It's plausible its even worth picking up when the race to the bottom happens. But if you can get $5 for it this week, you'll probably be able to rebuy it in a few weeks for half that.

Ok, that's the cards we expect to see substantial price losses. How about those that our algorithms predict will increase in price in the coming months:

Buys (cards that already exist that are likely to go up in value *if Silverquill Influence is popular)

Ok, I want to start by being completely candid, I think our Silverquill Influence and Zimone predictions are much more robust (and better?) than these. Whether for Quintorius I pushed our toolkit in directions that just aren't suitable or whether there just aren't that many realistic specs here, I'm not sure. In either case, I want to say that I have much less conviction about these picks than our Lorwyn or Silverquill or Quandrix picks. But the toolkit has performed well historically, so here they are with my interpretations, nonetheless for you to do with as you wish:

1. Alms: whenever they attack they have to consider the fact that you're going to warp combat by filling the board with spirits and saving your blockers. It turns sacrificed fabled passages/fetch lands into spirits, but critically it lets you end-step fill the board with spirits then untap and Quintorius can give them all double strike. This card is 3 decades old with a single printing and is currently 10 cents. To be clear, this is far from the most broken card you'll ever play, but its so cheap right now and looks like an auto-include for Quintorius.

2. Lion Sash: Currently has a higher inclusion rate for EDHrec than Alms, but commands an order of magnitude higher price and is only a few years old. It also lets you loop exiles to fill the board with spirits in the end step.

On cardmarket they're still hovering at the euro mark, but on TCGplayer they're closer to ~$3 a copy. It only has the one (Kamigawa 2) printing.

3. Popular in the Quintorius lists that already exist are the addition of token multipliers like Anointed Procession. Of these Exalted Sunborn, Mondrak Glory Dominus  and Ojer Taq, Deepest Foundation are all very low supply. Exalted Sunborn (<$20) currently is half the price of the other two due to its age, so perhaps you could argue that it has scope to 2x to reach the levels of the other two. Being double sided perhaps means that Ojer is particularly hard to reprint although warp and phyrexian mana aren't particularly precon friendly mechanics. For Quintorius they are less essential than other token decks so I don't think Quintorius will be the catalyst for these popular cards to sky rocket in price, but it will be one more deck that wants to play them if it can and one more commander that chips away at their supply.

4. Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury: is good for Quintorius. It gives you recurring triggers for Quintorius and a Lightning Helix each time. Its down to its last few 10s of copies on TCGplayer, but is still pretty well stocked on cardmarket. But it does charge a pretty substantial premium price already, and perhaps (much as the 3 cards at number 4) it is not a necessity for Quintorius - just a nice addition.

5. Boros Charm: That's right. It's pretty unoriginal but its getting to be a while since Boros charm last got a printing and its popular in several formats (including those that need playsets), so here we are, there are a handful of ~$4 copies left and then it jumps. But probably a price increase that it does is less likely to be down to Quintorius than all the other factors that make Boros Charm a staple in boros decks.

Honorable Mentions (some maybe for a watch list for future releases?)

These are excellent with Quintorius so if you're keen to deck build or adapt the precon then they're great, but they have so much supply that its hard to see their price changing dramatically, but we include them here in case you feel like we might be wrong:

Shadow of the Goblin: For our elephant historian chum, it gives a turnly trigger AND if you like the Underworld Breach type plan, it gives plenty of pings when you start into that one.

Drogskol Reinforcements: Lets you play Blasphemous Act, so that you have multiple ways to do a one-sided Wrath (Selfless Spirit too). Its ~50 cents, so its not going down from here. BUT: it doesn't have a lot of homes outside Quintorius so its hard to see its price being buoyed by demand from other decks and there are soooo many copies of it on tcgplayer.

Bannon, the Returners Leader: Maybe this should have made the cut. Its got Universes Beyond IP, so its hard to reprint and its absolutely perfect for Quintorius and super cheap (30 cents). BUT: there are so so many copies its going to take a lot of Quintorius players for this to make significant price movements.

Tersa Lightshatter: Gives you the discard and 'flashback' effects for Quintorius, but plenty of copies out there and again not essential.

Festival of Embers: has solid inclusion rates in other storm/spellslinger decks and only one printing, but too much supply at the moment for it to notably do any price increasing. Strictly worse than Underworld Breach, but maybe not than Past in Flames, since its usable over multiple turns without the extra cost. Maybe there's something I've missed?

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Jace, Garruk and Yawgmoth