Silverquill Influence over Secondary Market Magic Card Prices

A few hours ago we got the full lists of the Secrets of Strixhaven precons. So here's our analysis of which cards (reprints) are most likely to drop in price the most and which cards from outside the precon are likely to go up in price because of new demand from the Silverquill Influence precon.

 First, lets take a look at Killian Decisive Mentor.

Killian's a really interesting commander that offers a lot of political options. I did the analysis for this early because some sentiment analysis in February suggested this was one of the commanders that people were most excited about. There's now an interesting inversion in that because folks seem generally a bit disappointed about the precon. So plausibly, people will still want to place Killian but there will be a bit of an upheaval on the precon list.

Alongside Killian we also get a "reprint" of reserved list Replenish in Eiganjo Dynastorian:

So anytime I say 'Replenish' here, I mean this new Foxy little Advisor.

We'll discuss cards that will decrease in price (reprints) then cards that our analysis suggests will increase in price (cards that are likely to go up if the precon is popular). We're data scientists, so the analysis is built off evidence, models and trends from historic data. For the Lorwyn precons, our (now improved) algorithms that identify cards likely to go up in price provided a mean price increase of 420% between the articles release date and price checks 6 weeks later (see our articles on this for the evidence), but we don't think that we will be quite so successful here because with 5 precons (plus all the awesome new dragons) the demand will be less focussed than it was for a 2-precon+morcant+marlean set.

Ok, lets start with the 'sell recommendations' (those that will likely take a chunky price hit from being reprinted):

1. Redemption Arc: Strix 2 hype lead to speculation that has pushed this to a completely unjustified price. Now it gets a reprint and has so few other homes.... If you can get $1 for it now, you're probably doing better than you will be in a month.

2. Ghoulish Impetus: Scarcity had gradually driven Ghoulish Impetus from a $4 card a year ago to a $8-10 card, but that scarcity evaporates in 2 weeks and, unlike the next card, it doesn't have particularly high inclusion rates (~1%) so there isn't a reservoir of underlying demand. Very much time to offload these.

3. Combat Calligrapher was a $2 card in December, its gradually climbed to $4 over the last 4 months, ready to tumble back down with this reprint.

4. Songbirds Blessing: I find the art on this card weirdly hypnotising, but digressions aside: we expect it to half in price for the Summer, so again if you can get $12-15 for it today, you should snaffle that up. Its solid in enchantress decks but doesn't have many (any?) other homes.

5. Keen Duelist: bonus Dark Confidants? Its price is propped up by scarcity more than demand, so we expect this to be at the $2 price point by the Summer (from the $4 its currently at).

6. Eriette of the Charmed Apple: her gradual price rise over the last 3 months was surprisingly not driven by a huge spike in sales volume. She was already a well loved commander who continued to sell as well as she has all year. But nonetheless her price has gone up 4-6x in the last 4 months and so it will likely tumble back down.

7. Inkshield: Currently a $12-18 card, with a 3rd printing in 4 years we expect it to be $6-8 by Summer. It does have ok inclusion rates on EDHrec, so there will still be demand for it and its price may well buoy again, but it will take roughly a year for that to happen and it needs to dodge reprints in that time.

8. Land Tax: another more of a hold maybe or a sell now and buy back once there's good supply of the precon and the price is bottoming in a month and a bit? It gets a reprint every few years does a price drop and then climbs back up again because it's silly good.

Ok, that's the cards we expect to see substantial price losses. How about those that our algorithms predict will increase in price in the coming months:

Buys (cards that already exist that are likely to go up in value *if Silverquill Influence is popular)

1. Mantle of the Ancients: I just don't understand why this wasn't in the precon - it's in other similar precons (Virtue and Valor and Scrappy Survivors) and it gives a solid win condition and a fun way to trigger Killian a million times. Maybe in testing Replenish+Mantle was too much? Despite having 3 printings there are very few copies available and it commands a very reasonable $3 price point. Given how essential it is for Killian (and multitudes of other Voltron/Enchantress/Equipmenty decks), it should comfortably 2x+.

2. Eye of Nidhogg: At $0.75 on tcgplayer its an of magnitude cheaper than Ghoulish Impetus. More importantly from a price increase perspective, it just has the single Final Fantasy printing (and given the IP in the card name - probably has to stay that way). 3 Months ago (prior to the Killian reveal), it was already one of the 5 best selling non-reprints from the FF precons. Feels like a great fit for the Killian deck and, over the long-term, players will know they own a card that Hasbro will struggle to reprint, so its hard to see it dropping in price.

3. Evershrike: A constantly reanimating win-con that you can replay at end of turn? Seems perfect to be loaded up with enchantments from the new Replenish, Mantle or Retether (see further down this list). It has a single eventide printing and is overlooked in almost all other Enchantress decklists because its Orzov, so its a nice little sleeper, that is a perfect fit for Killian. There are ~20 copies on tcgplayer and they're a couple $ each at the moment.

4. Light Paws, Emperor's Voice - perhaps less unusual than Evershrike since it is a very popular commander in its own right. It's phenomenal with Killian and at a ~$/€1-2 price point (for now).

   

5. Timely Ward: I'm not really sure why this isn't in the precon either? It seems bonus fun to be able to goad your opponents creatures during other players turns AND you want to be able to protect Killian (or Evershrike/Light-Paws). Again, it does have 3 printings already, but its also almost sold out of all of them and is $/€2.

   
   

   

   6. Nurgle's Rot: this one's already probably hyped enough so not much needs saying: There are only a few copies left AND it's a Warhammer 40k card with a 40k card title and 40k card text, so its very hard to reprint. The grim dark future offers many many Killian triggers. Maybe more interestingly and unsaid on e.g. Reddit: 18 months ago you could see the Nurgles Rot price trend in the supply data so while people might now point to specific new sets as catalysts for the price rise, it already had enough homes in 2024 to continuously eat away at supply and for the price to tick up. That's still true now, but it has even more homes (e.g. Killian). The card is curiously unique enough that its hard to pinpoint what its price ceiling is.

7. Retether: Again, maybe Replenish was enough when they tested Killian, but if not (and if you want to load Evershrike up and get multitudes of Killian triggers) then Retether offers a fantastic 'insta-kill' type event or maybe your opponents have finally found a way to stop Nurgles Rot and you'd like to restart it again.

8. Umbra Mystic: enables a lot of shenanigans for this deck. She gives extra protection for Killian, but maybe she's most interesting with Eiganjo Dynastorian - your opponent basically HAS to have Swords to Plowshares/Path to Exile type removal. If they don't, then you're just going to Replenish whatever aura you sac each turn - then you can also Wrath of God to your hearts content and preserve the whole team with Mystic and then just Replenish again to retrigger Killian. Sounds pretty filthy. Umbra Mystic has 2 printings and only a few 10s of copies left. At $/€2 and with limited supply and plenty of existing homes it again seems an easy win.

These are less clear cut in the data, but we've added them in case:

9. Daxos the Returned: This deck wants to cast a lot of auras (Nurgles rot, over and over), and Daxos was aguably the OG orzov auraphile, so what better callback? A few 10s of copies of him left at $6-8. He feels a good fit, but perhaps not necessary?

10. Tempest Technique: In Europe, there is probably too much supply on cardmarket for this to price spike, but that's not so clearly the case for the US, but it is still less than a year old.  At $/€0.5 its hard to see it going down and it is a fantastic way to trigger Killian a bunch of times - maybe not so good with Replenish, Retether, Mantle?

11. Treacherous Link: What better recurring enchantment to punish the player whos creature you goaded? It's 30 years old, has a single printing and is less than $1. I can't help but feel that enough players might like this shenanigan..., but I also don't have the data to support that. Unlike Journey, it's not more than a feeling. But Urza's Legacy is my favourite set of all time (the one that I opened my first magic booster of as a kid), so I'm pretty content to close out on this guy.

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Jace, Garruk and Yawgmoth