Lorwyn Blight and Dance of the Elements: How Did Our Price Predictions Perform?
- Jace
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
Back in early January we took a swing at predicting which cards would climb alongside the release of the new Lorwyn precons. With Curse Blight and Dance of the Elements shaking up demand and counter synergies, there were plenty of angles to attack.
Now that a little time has passed, let’s look at what actually happened between us posting our predictions and today.
Pleasingly across both articles, no card went down in price. Every call either held steady or moved up, and most showed a meaningful gain. The mean price increase for our predictions was a 420% price increase, with 20% of cards we predicted to go up seeing a more than 10x price increase.
That does not mean we perfectly timed every spike or caught every peak, but directionally predictions held up very well.
Check out individual prediction performance below, there are perhaps a few with more room to rise.
Curse Blight Calls: The -1/-1 Engine Room
These were the picks from the Blight focused article.
56c → $8.40
This is the sort of graph that makes us look much smarter than we are. A bulk uncommon that slotted perfectly into renewed -1/-1 interest. When synergy meets low supply, things move quickly. This was easily the standout performer from either list.
$36 → $48
Already expensive, so expectations had to be modest. A steady climb rather than a spike. For a higher entry point card, a $12 gain is nothing to complain about.
50c → $6 (via an initial spike to $10)
Another near bulk card that responded explosively. The market briefly overshot to $10 before retracing to a still very healthy $6. Even at current levels this represents a huge percentage gain.
59c → $7.20 (again via a spike to $10)
Very similar story to Generous Patron. Old printing, combo potential, clear synergy with Devoted Druid style shells. A sharp spike, partial retrace, but still firmly multiplied from entry.
~$5 → $8
We noted at the time this might already have moved. It had. Still, it managed another leg upward and delivered respectable gains.
Verdict on article one:
Every call went up. Two extreme multipliers, one strong mid tier gainer, and two with solid appreciation. Quite good.
Dance of the Elements Calls: Elemental Escalation
The Elementals article included more mid priced staples, so massive price explosions were much less likely, but we hoped to see some solid gains nonetheless.
$20 → $44
The headline hit. Animar was the obvious missing puzzle piece from the precon and demand showed up exactly where expected. A clean double.
$44 → $64
Already expensive and already seeing cross format play. A 45 percent gain at this price tier is a strong result.
$6 → $7.32
A modest mover. Not every synergy piece becomes a rocket. Still positive and comfortably in the green so nothing lost if you did pick this one up!
$2.67 → $11.62
Very limited recent printings since original Lorwyn led to one of the best percentage gainers in the entire set of predictions.
$3.63 → $7.85
A steady double. Clean, uncomplicated demand increase.
$3.51 → $21.30
Quietly one of the biggest wins. Lower supply dynamics plus renewed interest caused a very aggressive repricing.
$2.75 → $3.82
Not explosive, but consistent. A fairly broad staple that mostly absorbed new demand.
$2.96 → $3.07
Functionally flat, but still technically up. Probably can't quite call this one a win!
$4.53 → $4.74
Another small gain. Perhaps influenced by the original author's enjoyment of pauper!
No change
The only card that did not move. But at least it didn't fall! Plenty of listings well above market price but very few sales, so perhaps there may be a small increase when sellers inevitably drop prices a little.
Verdict on article two:
Seven cards up with a couple of outstanding performers. Three flat.
Overall Performance
Across both articles we made fifteen buy calls.
12 cards increased in price
3 cards held steady
0 cards declined
A few delivered outsized gains from sub one dollar entry points. Several doubled from the low single digits. A couple of already premium staples added healthy incremental gains. And importantly, nothing reversed direction and punished the our algorithm!
Of course, spikes that retrace can be difficult to capture perfectly in practice. Liquidity, timing, and regional supply always matter. The goal is not to sell at the absolute peak but to identify the right direction ahead of time.
On that front, the Lorwyn predictions performed very well.
We will not pretend every future call will look this clean. Reprint risk, metagame shifts, and broader market softness can quickly humble anyone. But for these precons, synergy plus shallow supply did exactly what it often does.
If you picked up copies when the articles went live, you are likely sitting on gains across almost the entire board.
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Thanks for checking out the article and for your support!
